Happy Friday my people. Phil Rosen here, writing to you from a cafe in downtown Manhattan.
While I haven’t personally checked every building, odds are that a lot of the skyscrapers around me are emptier than they’ve been in years.
Commercial properties are under pressure thanks to the persistence of work-from-home trends — meaning less demand for office space — and higher borrowing costs.
Moody’s just reported that real-estate prices in the sector just saw their first quarterly decline in 12 years, and analysts expect them to drop further.
Commercial property headwinds aside, today we’re looking at the residential housing market, which is undergoing its own shifts, but not exactly in the same direction.
1. Want to sound smarter around the water cooler today? Tell someone that the housing market is so unfavorable right now that the biggest home buyers in the country are actually net sellers now.
Through the first quarter of 2023, institutional buyers that own more than 1,000 homes have reversed their pandemic-era spending spree, a recent analysis from John Burns Research and Consulting found.
Those companies purchased 90% fewer homes in January and February this year, compared to the same time in 2022.
American Homes 4 Rent, for example, bought 312 single-family homes and sold 666 to start the year. In the first quarter of 2022, when borrowing costs were lower, the company bought over 1,100 homes and sold just 171, per data cited by Fortune.
Similarly, Invitation Homes, the largest owner of single-family rentals in the US, bought 194 homes and sold 297 in the first quarter of 2o23.
A year ago, it bought 822 and sold 147.
And yet, even as big institutional buyers become sellers, there’s still an inventory issue weighing on the market.
Naturally, the housing market has slowed down for everyday Americans, too, given the steep mortgage rates and lack of affordability.
A lot of that’s being driven by low inventory — something Pantheon Macroeconomics doesn’t expect to change anytime soon.
Broadly speaking, soaring rates means more Americans want to stay put in their current homes, rather than buying a new one and refinancing at a higher monthly payment.
The days of pandemic-era mortgages under 4% are over, and a 30-year fixed rate mortgage is averaging about 6.55%. On top of this, 97% of all mortgages have terms of either 30 or 15 years, and 60% of those are just one to four years old.
“Most existing homeowners are not going to move unless they absolutely have to, due to death, divorce, or an — irresistible — job offer,” Pantheon economist Kieran Clancy said.
What’s your housing outlook for the rest of the year? Tweet me (@philrosenn) or email me (email@example.com) to let me know.
In other news:
2. US stock futures rise early Friday, as investors still await progress in debt-ceiling talks. Meanwhile, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and New York Fed President John Williams are due to make speeches later today. Check out the latest market moves.
3. Earnings on deck: Morgan Stanley, Honeywell, Amgen, all reporting.
4. Goldman Sachs portfolio manager Luke Barrs isn’t intimidated by a weaker economy or the debt ceiling fiasco. In his view, these are the six best long-term investing opportunities right now.
5. US commercial real-estate prices just fell for the first time in 12 years. The drop was less than 1%, and sparked by a fall in office and apartment buildings, according to Moody’s. The group warned that further declines could still be on the way.
6. Big-name investors are going all-in on artificial intelligence. Some of the most notable names across Wall Street have revealed large bets on AI stocks like Nvidia and Microsoft. See where Bill Ackman, Cathie Wood, Paul Tudor Jones, and others are parking cash.
7. Elon Musk has been all over the news this week since Tesla’s annual shareholder meeting. At the event and in a rare sit-down television interview, the tech mogul shared his thoughts on Twitter, AI, the economy, China, and more. Here are his 15 best quotes.
8. This real-estate investor started with two properties and leveraged their debt to scale to over 2,400 units. He shared four tips to maximize cash-out refinances to purchase the next property.
9. Charles Schwab’s director of trading shared the three factors to look for when picking stocks this year. Underperforming names present opportunities — but a key indicator leads him to believe investors could be better off buying bonds.
10. Video-game maker Take-Two rallied double-digits after it hinted that the new Grand Theft Auto will come out in 2024. The company’s latest earnings were mixed, but it said plans were in motion to “deliver several groundbreaking titles.”
Read the original article on Business Insider